In this year’s pro football, where there are many incidents, the fall of Incheon United also draws attention.
Incheon, which advocates practical soccer, has fallen to 9th place, right before the relegation zone this year. Although it is still at the point where we have only played 6 games, it is regrettable because we were on a winning streak last year at this time.
It is all the more surprising since Incheon was considered a good candidate to advance to the semifinals in the predictions before the opening. It was only natural that they brought in the best crack Zerso and K-League 1 Most Valuable Player (MVP) Shin Jin-ho, while maintaining the power of winning the Asian Champions League (ACL) ticket last year.
Upon opening the lid, the results were different. The expected score was close to the bottom (5 goals), and the salty water defense was embroiled in the disgrace of being the most conceded (12). If the current atmosphere continues, it is worrying whether the tag of ‘King of Survival’ will be attached again.
Incheon coach Cho Seong-hwan sighs, saying, “It’s a pity that we couldn’t produce results.” 카지노
Fortunately, it is the fact that the result that director Cho laments is highly likely to change over time. According to the data provided by the sports statistics company ‘Opta’, there are signs that Incheon is suffering from bad luck.
First of all, it is worth paying attention to Incheon’s accumulated expected goals (xG) in 6 matches. Incheon was expected to score a whopping 9.5 goals (first overall) in this indicator, which calculates the probability of scoring a goal for each shot.
However, the actual score was only 5 goals (tied for 9th place), so 4.5 goals were lost. Incheon is the team that suffered the most loss among the 12 teams in the ‘expected score-score’ category. Along with the analysis that Incheon’s goal determination is low, it is also possible to interpret that there was no luck.
It is interesting that Incheon had bad luck even when it lost points. Incheon, which is based on three-back, is not bad with 6.4 goals (xGA) (lowest 3rd place). However, the actual goal was 12 goals, the most among 12 teams.
If Incheon scored all the expected points, and only gave the average score, the result would be completely different. In the match against Daejeon, where Incheon drew 3-3 at home, a 4-2 victory was possible. If the same method is applied to the rest of the matches, the 6-game winning points will be changed to 11 points instead of the current 5 points. The goal difference goes from -7 to +3.
On the 16th, Incheon will meet Gangwon FC, one of the only teams without a win yet. Gangwon is also a team suffering from bad luck in terms of scoring, and it is expected that watching who will be more unlucky will be a point of observation.
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